From January to August, China's steel exports increased by 26.5% year-on-year to 71.866 million tons, while the national crude steel production decreased by 2% year-on-year to 543.02 million tons during the same period, indicating a significant contraction in the domestic steel market. The Chinese stainless steel industry, which has high expectations, has seen a continuous reduction and shutdown of stainless steel enterprises since the beginning of the year, and some newly established enterprises have been forced to postpone production. The growth rate of stainless steel crude steel production in the first half of 2015 has dropped from double digits to 6.6%. Some institutions predict that China's stainless steel crude steel production may only increase by 2.5% to 22.15 million tons in 2015 The significant decline and volatility in the stock price of global commodity trading giant Glencore Xstrata Co., Ltd. indicates that global commodities such as iron ore have entered a downward price cycle. From this observation, the probability of the price of 150 ordinary carbon billets falling below 1500 yuan/ton in the future is increasing

The contradiction between supply and demand of alloys has intensified

From January to August, the national production of ferroalloys was 24.0586 million tons, a decrease of 1.55% compared to the same period in 2014;

; The net import volume of ferroalloys in China was 1.651 million tons (2.387 million tons imported and 736000 tons exported), an increase of 96.5% compared to the net import volume of 840000 tons (1.714 million tons imported and 874000 tons exported) in the same period of 2014; The domestic supply of ferroalloys was 25.71 million tons, an increase of 8.5% compared to the same period in 2014, which is in stark contrast to the 2% decrease in crude steel production in the first eight months of this year Under the high tariff policy for the export of advantageous ferroalloy varieties in China, the export volume of ferrosilicon was 1.539 million tons in 2007, but only 313000 tons were exported in 2013. In the first eight months of 2015, the export volume was only 188000 tons. From January to August 2015, the export volume of ferroalloys in China continued to decline by 18.75% compared to the same period in 2014. It should be noted that there is an influx of imported ferroalloys from abroad. From January to August, China imported a total of 1.826 million tons of ferrochrome, an increase of 27.9% compared to the same period in 2014 and 69.1% compared to the same period in 2013; China has imported a total of 433600 tons of nickel iron, an increase of 151.66% compared to the same period in 2014 and an increase of 375.44% compared to the same period in 2013

Alloy prices are accelerating their decline

Since the beginning of this year, all ferroalloy prices have continued to decline, and most have already fallen below the cost bottom line. Many ferroalloy companies have had to insist on losing production in order to maintain market share.

. The high carbon ferrochrome price announced by Baosteel in October was 6000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.7% from 6400 yuan in October 2014, 14.2% from 6850 yuan in October 2013, 18.3% from 7100 yuan in October 2012, and 37.5% from 8250 yuan in October 2011. The price of silicon manganese determined by Hebei Iron and Steel Group in October fell to 4900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 97% from 9650 yuan/ton in October 2011; The price of ferrosilicon in October was around 5000 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 72% from 8600 yuan/ton in November 2011. Due to the London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel price dropping from $58000/ton to $10000/ton, Taiyuan Iron and Steel's confirmed September high nickel iron price is only 740 yuan/nickel